000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 00N92W TO 06N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM N 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 26N1140W CONTINUES TO DEVELOPING CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 26N144W.  AIR MASS VERY DRY ALONG 4-6 DEG OF AXIS DUE 
TO STRONG ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.  GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BRING 
VORTEX CLOSE TO 140W AND EVENTUALLY ENTER E PAC FORCING 
DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS PRESENTLY ALONG 130W 
TO MOVE E.

SW JET CORE 60-70 KT BETWEEN VORTEX AND RIDGE ADVECT ABUNDANT 
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO AND FEEDING PLENTY OF ENERGY TO COLD FRONT NOW 
ENTERING GULF OF MEXICO.  ELSEWHERE FURTHER E...AIR MASS REMAINS 
VERY DRY UNDER RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER REMAINING OF BASIN.

AT THE SURFACE...

HIGH PRES CENTER 1038 MB AT 37N143W HAS RIDGE AXIS EXTEND TO 
12N11W MAINTAINING CAP OVER LOW LEVEL BROKEN STRATIFIED CLOUDS N 
OF 12N W OF 120W.   WEAKENING HIGH PRES DRIFTS E DIMINISHING 
TRADE WINDS W OF 130W...BUT SQUEEZING GRADIENT ALONG COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INCREASING WINDS ON BOTH COASTS WITHIN NEXT 
24 HRS.  

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADES CONTINUE TO SEEP THROUGH COSTA RICA 
MOUNTAIN RANGE INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE 
CHANGE WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES