000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED MAR 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2200 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 05N79W TO 04N93W TO 02N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING N OF AXIS TO 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 93W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 12N108W TO 08N120W TO 08N140W. ...DISCUSSION... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ELONGATING E TO W...EXTENDING FROM A S/W ROTATING THROUGH BROAD TROUGH ACROSS NW N AMERICA NEAR SRN AZ/N MEXICO BORDER TO A PAIR OF VORTICES WITH MIDPOINT NEAR 25N143W CONTINUING W AND SW AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS AND TO THE SE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WERE POSITIONED NW AND SE OF THIS ELONGATED TROUGH...AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE TWO VORTICES TO MOVE WSW TO A POSITION JUST E OF HAWAII...CONSOLIDATE...AND BECOME CUTOFF DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE PREVAILS WITHIN 4-5 DEG EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS DUE TO STRONG UPPER CONVERGENCE AND COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. AN INTENSIFYING JET STREAM BETWEEN THIS ELONGATED TROUGH AND THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE UP TO 120 KT CONTINUES TO INCREASE UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AND IS ADVECTING A LARGE SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO N HALF OF MEXICO. THIS WAS ALSO AIDING IN THE VENTILATION OF A ZONE OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TOPPED CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 140W AND 120W. THIS PERSISTENT AND STUBBORN DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...RESIDING ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW ALONG ABOUT 115W...WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND REFORM TO THE E...JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SRN HALF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THIS TIME...CURTAILING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF AREA EXCEPT MINOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITCZ E OF 97W. AT THE SURFACE... A 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N141W HAS A HEALTHY RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 10N100W. THIS EXPANDING RIDGE HAS ENHANCED THE TRADE WINDS N OF 05N AND W OF 120W...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AS CENTER DRIFTS SLIGHTLY E DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL INCREASE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND INSIDE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 48 HR. A LARGE...INTENSE...AND DEEP LAYERED LOW DOMINATING MOST OF THE W HALF OF THE ATLC AND DIGGING TOWARDS THE NRN CARIB...COUPLED WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC SWIRL OFFSHORE OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA... IS PRODUCING SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT LLVL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CARIB AND HAS DIMINISHED GAPS WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF 20 KT GAP WIND FLOW EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ STRIPLING