000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242202 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE MAR 24 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 03N83W TO 05N95W TO 04N132W TO TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 126W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 93W. ...DISCUSSION... WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 28N125W TO 22N141W IS ELONGATING SLOWLY TO THE NE AND GRADUALLY GIVING WAY...AND WILL MERGE...WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NNW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING A CUTOFF CYCLONIC VORTEX ALONG 140W. VORTEX LIKELY TO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRES AND DETERIORATE WEATHER OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF 120W...AND LIKELY BEYOND PRESENT 48 HR FORECAST PERIOD. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND HIGH TPW'S ARE FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NWD TO 20N SE OF THE LOW BY FRI 12Z. PLENTY OF AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NE BY INCREASING JET CORE JUST SE OF TROUGH AXIS. ITCZ CONVECTION FLARING UP UNDER MOISTURE SWATH W OF 125W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING FEATURE OVER REMAINDER E PAC E OF 120W WITH MINOR WEAK TROUGH FLATTENING CREST N OF 20N MAKING W WINDS ALMOST ZONAL ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE S OF 20N E OF 118W DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRES CENTER 1039 MB AT 36N140W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 20N112W. STRONG TRADEWINDS N OF 08N W OF 120W WITH LARGE LONG PERIOD MIXED NW AND NE SWELLS SPREADING AS FAR S AS 05N. REINFORCED RIDGE ALSO FORCING STRONG WINDS AGAINST BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THROUGH GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SWELLS PRODUCED BY GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF AREA ENCROACHING INTO E PAC. GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN NEXT 48 HOURS...WHILE GULF OF PANAMA GAP WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY AS ATLC HIGH PRES DRIFTS FURTHER E. $$ STRIPLING 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242202 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE MAR 24 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 18200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 03N83W TO 05N95W TO 04N132W TO TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 126W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 93W. ...DISCUSSION... WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 28N125W TO 22N141W IS ELONGATING SLOWLY TO THE NE AND GRADUALLY GIVING WAY...AND WILL MERGE...WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NNW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING A CUTOFF CYCLONIC VORTEX ALONG 140W. VORTEX LIKELY TO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRES AND DETERIORATE WEATHER OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF 120W...AND LIKELY BEYOND PRESENT 48 HR FORECAST PERIOD. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND HIGH TPW'S ARE FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NWD TO 20N SE OF THE LOW BY FRI 12Z. PLENTY OF AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NE BY INCREASING JET CORE JUST SE OF TROUGH AXIS. ITCZ CONVECTION FLARING UP UNDER MOISTURE SWATH W OF 125W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING FEATURE OVER REMAINDER E PAC E OF 120W WITH MINOR WEAK TROUGH FLATTENING CREST N OF 20N MAKING W WINDS ALMOST ZONAL ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE S OF 20N E OF 118W DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRES CENTER 1039 MB AT 36N140W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 20N112W. STRONG TRADEWINDS N OF 08N W OF 120W WITH LARGE LONG PERIOD MIXED NW AND NE SWELLS SPREADING AS FAR S AS 05N. REINFORCED RIDGE ALSO FORCING STRONG WINDS AGAINST BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THROUGH GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SWELLS PRODUCED BY GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF AREA ENCROACHING INTO E PAC. GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN NEXT 48 HOURS...WHILE GULF OF PANAMA GAP WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY AS ATLC HIGH PRES DRIFTS FURTHER E. $$ STRIPLING