000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 05N77W 01N100W 03N120W 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 84W-86W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM N 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 123W-133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1037 MB HIGH NEAR 35N137W AND 
LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A LARGE SWATH OF 20-25 KT 
NE/E TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 10N W OF 122W. 
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE NW TO N WINDS ARE BLOWING N OF 21N E OF 122W. 
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS ARE FORECAST BESIDES 
FOR SOME WEAKENING NEAR THE BAJA COAST. NW SWELLS OF 12-14 
SECOND PERIODS COMBINED WITH NE WIND WAVES ARE ELEVATING 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 15 FT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. 

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N135W IS THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCING 
FEATURE. INSTABILITY AND DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS DRAWING 
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
TSTMS FROM 18N-27N E OF 132W. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS 
DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...BESIDES FOR A FEW CLUSTERS WITHIN 
THE ITCZ. 

GAP WINDS...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC GAPS. 
REMOVED TEHUANTEPEC MENTION IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST AS VISIBLE 
IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL STREAMS OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING VERY SLOWLY 
FROM S TO N...INDICATIVE OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. ASCAT AND A 
COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS 
ARE STILL BLOWING NE 20 KT. SIMILAR MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE  FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...ESPECIALLY DURING MORNING 
HOURS WHEN DRAINAGE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HI-RES QSCAT PASS REVEALED 20-25 KT NW TO N 
WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF 26N AT 13Z. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE 
WRN U.S. BY WED...LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TAKE SHAPE OVER THE 
ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE 
GULF.

$$
CANGIALOSI