000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221623
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 01N104W TO 03N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N136W TO WELL-DEFINED 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 23N140W.  VORTEX DRIFT NE AS STATIONARY BROAD 
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG 120W BLOCKS ANY FURTHER EASTWARD MOVE.  
SW JET CORE 80 KT HELP ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO WHERE TAIL END OF APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT COULD HAVE AVAILABLE FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.  

LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS 
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO E PAC REACHING 07N113W WITH VERY DRY 
SUBSIDING AIR MASS WITHIN 5-8 DEG FROM AXIS.  DRYNESS EXTEND AS 
FAR EASTWARD AS WELL BEYOND CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB AT 34N145W HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE 13N108W.
GALE FORCE NW WINDS ON NE QUADRANT OF RIDGE HELP SPREAD LARGE 
LONG PERIOD SWELLS INTO E PAC N OF 10N.  RIDGE FORECAST TO 
STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT TWO DAYS WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING 
SEAS W OF 120W.

E OF 110W...
WITH ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
GAP WINDS CEASE WITHIN NEXT 6 HR WHILE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP 
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 24-36 HR.  LOW PRES 
1010 MB OVER COLOMBIA HELP MAINTAIN GULF OF PANAMA N WINDS 
THROUGH 48 HR.

$$
WALLY BARNES