000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190811
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 02N79W TO 04N86W TO 00N110W 
TO 00N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 115W...
CURRENTLY A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED 
NEAR 33N135W. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 03Z SHOWED A BROAD AREA 
OF 20 KT TRADES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...MAINLY S OF 
20N AND W OF 125W. ALOFT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING 
THROUGH 130W N OF 30N. A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAD 
BEEN FLARING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS FROM 12N TO 14N W OF 
135W...DUE TO THE CONVERGING TRADES TO THE NORTH AND DIVERGENT 
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LEAD TO THE 
TRADES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH FRI. A 
LARGE AREA OF NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA 
WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE 
FRI. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE 
GULF OF ALASKA WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DOWN THE U.S. WEST 
COAST SAT INTO SUN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE 
WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHERN BAJA...FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES 
FURTHER WEST. A BROAD SWATH OF STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL RESULT 
FROM THE BAJA COAST SW TO NEAR 10N140W...ACCOMPANIED BY 
NORTHERLY SWELL.

E OF 115W...
HIGH RESOLUTION DATA FROM A 00Z QUIKSCAT SHOWED ONLY 20 KT WINDS 
WERE EVIDENT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FAIRLY NEAR THE 
COAST. WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY 
ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FOLLOWED 
BY STRONG HIGH PRES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS WILL 
STAY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE AS THE MAIN BODY OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS 
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON SAT AS THE 
HIGH PRES WEAKENS. FURTHER SOUTH...A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS 
WAS NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE PAST FEW 
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF COVERAGE INTO OFFSHORE WATERS MAY 
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO DRAINAGE FLOW 
ENHANCEMENTS. THIS PATTERN WILL BE REPEATED THROUGH THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN MODEST WITH 
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION DUE TO LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.

$$

CHRISTENSEN