000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG FROM 08N83W TO 04N97W THEN FROM 04N120W TO 04N140W.  
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 130W IS 
ADVECTING E ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE N OF 12N OVER ITS CREST.  
DOWNSTREAM LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PICKS MOISTURE AND 
BRINGS IT ACROSS MEXICO INTO NW GULF OF MEXICO RIDING A 100 KT 
JET STREAM FEEDING COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTION AND MULTILEVEL 
OVERCAST SKIES.  WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 126W FROM 10N-14N 
PICKS SOME MOISTURE FOR WEAKENING ISOLATED CONVECTION E OF AXIS. 
ELSEWHERE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY S OF 16N AS CONVERGING WINDS 
ALOFT FORCE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 115W.  LARGE 
STATIONARY RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA COMPLETES UPPER LEVEL 
PICTURE EXTENDING DRY AREA WELL INTO CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
REINFORCED HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB AT 31N135W HOLDS ITS GROUND 
FORCING GALE CENTER FURTHER W AWAY FROM WRN E PAC BOUNDARY. 
WINDS W OF 130W DIMINISH AND NW SWELLS SUBSIDE AS GALE CENTER 
WEAKENS WELL W OF BASIN.  

ATLC HIGH PRES WHICH WAS CAUSING GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA 
GAP WINDS HAS WEAKENED AND BEING FORCED E BY COLD FRONT OFF 
CONUS E COAST...DIMINISHING CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS...HENCE GAP 
WINDS.

$$
WALLY BARNES