000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141010
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG  08N81W TO 03N94W...AND THEN BEGINS ANEW 01N120W TO 
04N140W.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS E 
OF 94W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 
135W...TO 30N 136W...AND HAS AMPLIFIED SOMEWHAT IN THE PAST 8-12 
HOURS AS KONA LOW NW OF HAWAIIAN ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHIFT WSW. 
THIS IS ALLOWING FOR DOWNSTREAM TROF TO DIG SSE OFF OF THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AS JET ENERGY IS DIVING FROM THE FAR 
NE PAC INTO BACKSIDE OF BROAD AND STATIONARY TUTT LIKE LOW 
ACROSS THE SRN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA/ARIZONA BORDERS. STLT DERIVED 
WINDS INDICATE A 90-120 KT JET MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE E OF 140W 
AND DIVING INTO BACK OF TROF ALONG 115W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID 
AND HIGH CLOUDS AND LIKELY LARGE AREAS OF STRATIFORM PRECIP... 
AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION...WAS SPREADING 
ENE ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF BAJA AND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND 
INTO SW TEXAS. UPPER CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE GENERALLY 
PREVAILED ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC S OF 20N AND E OF 
110W...WHERE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WAS INVOF A SHORT 
ITCZ SEGMENT FROM WRN PANAMA WSW TO 3N 94W. THE DEEP LAYERED 
KONA LOW HAS SURFACE PRES ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB AT 27N156W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A HIGH NEAR 35N 136W WAS 
PRODUCING SE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE TAFB 
PAC FORECAST WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE INTO THE 
TROPICAL EPAC S OF BAJA WAS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD ZONE OF 
20 KT NE TO E WINDS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N AND W OF 115W. LITTLE 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.  

MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEING DOMINATED BY 
MERGING S TO SSW SRN HEMI SWELL AND NW SWELL FROM THE KONA LOW. 
VERY CONFUSED SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF STRONG SELY FLOW 
IN THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SE WIND WAVES 
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD...AND ARE MERGING WITH THE S AND NW 
SWELLS...YIELDING SEAS AROUND 12 FT. VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 
15 TO 17 SECONDS HAS REACHED CENTRAL AMERICA AND WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH IN WAVE LENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
 
NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BRIDGE ACROSS THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND 
PANAMA BUT HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KT DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. 
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE 
AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO AROUND 20 KT...AND INCREASE SEAS 
OFFSHORE OF PAPAGAYO TO 8 FT AGAIN BY 36 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING