000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140349
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO 01N110W TO 06N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS E OF 95W AND W OF 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 126W HAS FLATTENED 
CREST N OF 29N BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SRN CALIFORNIA.  
RIDGE IS ONLY OBSTACLE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF CYCLONE FROM 
MOVING E OVER FORECAST WATERS.  DEEP LAYER CYCLONE HAS SURFACE 
LOW PRES 1002 MB AT 28N156W WITH STORM FORCE WINDS JUST OUTSIDE 
E PAC BOUNDARY...AND 20-30 KT GUSTY WINDS OVER NW CORNER OF 
FORECAST WATERS.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REINFORCED RIDGE HOLDING 
ITS GROUND WITH LOW PRES SPINNING W OF AREA BEYOND FORECAST 
PERIOD BEFORE ATTEMPTING FINAL NE MOVE WHEN RIDGE FINALLY 
WEAKENS WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD WHEN RIDGE BEGINS MOVING SE 
AS NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SE INTO DISCUSSION AREA.  MEANWHILE 
CYCLONE ADVECTING ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO E 
PAC WHERE RIDGE THEN CARRIES ALONG ITS FLATTENED CREST ACROSS 
SRN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO INTO SE TEXAS AND NW 
GULF OF MEXICO WHERE COLD FRONT USES FOR DEEP CONVECTION.  

ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE 
COUNTERPART MAINTAIN DRY AIR MASS WITH ONLY ISOLATED MINOR 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IS AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES 1002 MB 
PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS NEAR NW CORNER OF BASIN AND LARGE 
LONG PERIOD...UP TO 13 SEC...SWELL PROPAGATING NE ACROSS 
EQUATOR.  S SWELL EVENTUALLY DOMINATE MOST OF E PAC S OF 20N 
WITHIN 24 HRS AND REACH 30N BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BRIDGE ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS.  GULF OF PANAMA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT.   

$$
WALLY BARNES