000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111002
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 01N110W TO 03N130W TO 03N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE AS A BROAD MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE SW U.S. TO A BASE NEAR 
21N118W SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/FOUR 
CORNERS OF THE U.S. AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN EMBEDDED 
SHORTWAVE CROSSING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS FCST TO 
WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS OUT TO THE NE. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH ALONG 125W IS FORECAST TO DIG SE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST LATER TODAY AND REAMPLIFY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE. 
MEANWHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 138W/140W WITH THE NET EFFECT AT 
THE SURFACE WILL BE A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF 
THE AREA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W THROUGH FRI.

A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0348 UTC INDICATED AN AREA
OF FRESH TRADES S OF THE HIGH PRES GENERALLY FROM 12N TO 25N W 
OF 120W. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY BUT VEER TO THE 
E AND SE THU AND FRI AS A GALE CENTER DEVELOPS WELL W OF THE 
AREA. THIS SAME GALE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NW SWELL
WHICH WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE AREA BY FRI. 

FURTHER EAST...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO 
FILTER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAINS PROVIDING 
20 KT FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND INTO THE ADJACENT 
PACIFIC WATERS TO AROUND 95W. SOME OF THIS CARIBBEAN FLOW 
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL. EASTERLY 
SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO IS MIXING WITH NW AND SW SWELL TO FORM A 
PATCH OF CONFUSED SEAS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. THIS 
GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A SURGE OF LONG PERIOD...17-18 SECOND 
SOUTHERLY SWELL LATER TODAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRI. 

$$
COBB