000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110405
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 00N89W TO 00N95W TO 01N120W TO 01N140W.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE AS A BROAD MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE SW U.S. TO A BASE 
NEAR 21N119W SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/FOUR 
CORNERS OF THE U.S. AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN EMBEDDED 
SHORTWAVE CROSSING EXTREME NW MEXICO IS SWEEPING NE TOWARD 
ARIZONA. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 35N128W IS 
FORECAST TO DIG SE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATER TODAY AND 
WED AND REAMPLIFY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE. MEANWHILE A 
RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 135W WITH THE NET EFFECT AT THE SURFACE WILL 
BE A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA NEAR 36N138W MOVING 
SOUTHEAST BUT WEAKENING. FRESH TRADES S OF THE HIGH PRES WILL 
PERSIST AS WELL MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 125W. NW SWELL FROM THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA ALTHOUGH 
THIS IS NOT AS LARGE AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. 

FURTHER EAST...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO 
FILTER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAINS PROVIDING 
20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND INTO 
THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS TO AROUND 95W. SOME OF THIS 
CARIBBEAN FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AS 
WELL. EASTERLY SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO IS MIXING WITH NW AND SW 
SWELL TO FORM A PATCH OF CONFUSED SEAS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95W AND 
110W. THIS SUBSIDES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF LONG 
PERIOD...17-18 SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL TODAY AND THU.

$$
COBB