000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
06N85W TO 00N120W TO 02N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
PATTERN IS STARTING TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A 
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO A BASE NEAR 21N120W SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO 
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN EMBEDDED 
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE NE ACROSS NW MEXICO. ANOTHER FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH NEAR 39N132W IS FORECAST TO DIG SE LATER TODAY AND WED 
AND REAMPLIFY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE. MEANWHILE A RIDGE 
BUILDS ALONG 140W WITH THE NET EFFECT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A 
1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA NEAR 37N139W MOVING SOUTHEAST TO 
35N130W THROUGH MID WEEK...RESULTING IN INCREASED NORTHERLY 
WINDS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COAST ACCOMPANIED BY 
LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL. FRESH TRADES S OF THE HIGH PRES 
WILL PERSIST AS WELL MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 125W. NW SWELL FROM 
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA 
ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT AS LARGE AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. 

FURTHER EAST...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO 
FILTER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAINS PROVIDING 
20 KT FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND INTO THE ADJACENT 
PACIFIC WATERS TO AROUND 98W. SOME OF THIS CARIBBEAN FLOW 
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL. EASTERLY 
SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO IS MIXING WITH NW AND SW SWELL TO FORM A 
PATCH OF CONFUSED SEAS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. THIS 
SUBSIDES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF LONG PERIOD...17-18 
SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL BY WED. 

$$
COBB