000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE.. 05N77W TO 
04N80W TO 05N90W TO 02N100W TO 03N130W TO 02N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
PATTERN IS STARTING TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A 
FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO A BASE NEAR 20N122W SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO 
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A FAIRLY 
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 40N135W IS FORECAST TO DIG SE
LATER TODAY AND WED AND REAMPLIFY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE. 
MEANWHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 140W WITH THE NET EFFECT AT THE 
SURFACE WILL BE A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA NEAR 37N139W 
MOVING SOUTHEAST TO 35N130W THROUGH MID WEEK...RESULTING IN 
INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA 
COAST ACCOMPANIED BY LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL. FRESH TRADES S 
OF THE HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST AS WELL MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 125W. 
NW SWELL FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO MIGRATES THROUGH 
THE AREA ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT AS LARGE AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. 

FURTHER EAST...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO 
FILTER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAINS PROVIDING 
20 TO 25 KT FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND INTO THE 
ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS TO AROUND 95W. SOME OF THIS CARIBBEAN 
FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL. EASTERLY 
SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO IS MIXING WITH NW AND SW SWELL TO FORM A 
PATCH OF CONFUSED SEAS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. THIS 
SUBSIDES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF LONG PERIOD...17-18 
SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL BY WED. 

$$
COBB