000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO 
05N90W TO 02N105W TO 04125W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
PATTERN IS STARTING TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 
20N120W SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHERN 
BAJA. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS WELL AS SHORT WAVE 
ENERGY CURRENTLY NEAR 42N137W DIGS SE THROUGH TUE THEN PUSHES 
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA TUE INTO WED...AHEAD 
OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING ALONG 140W. THE NET EFFECT AT THE 
SURFACE WILL BE A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA NEAR 35N145W 
MOVING EAST TO 35N130W THROUGH MID WEEK...RESULTING IN INCREASED 
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COAST 
ACCOMPANIED BY LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL. FRESH TRADES S OF 
THE HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST AS WELL MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 125W. NW 
SWELL FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO MIGRATES THROUGH THE 
AREA ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT AS LARGE AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. 

FURTHER EAST...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO 
FILTER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICAN 
MOUNTAINS...PROVIDING 20 TO 25 KT FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND INTO THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS TO AROUND 95W. 
SOME OF THIS CARIBBEAN FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA AS WELL. EASTERLY SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO IS MIXING WITH NW 
AND SW SWELL TO FORM A PATCH OF CONFUSED SEAS S OF 06N BETWEEN 
95W AND 110W. THIS SUBSIDES TUE...FOLLOWED BY A NEW SURGE OF 
SOUTHERLY SWELL BY WED. 


$$
CHRISTENSEN