000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO 
04N110W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 06N85W TO 04N90W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AREA NORTH 
OF 10N WEST OF A LINE FROM WEST TEXAS TO 10N120W. THIS FEATURE 
WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AND GIVE WAY TO NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS A PLUME OF 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI 
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED RAIN AND SHOWERS WITHIN ABOUT 
350 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N130W TO 20N115W TO BEYOND 
32N100W. THIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE 
PACIFIC AND ALSO BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF 29N AND MEXICO NORTH 
OF LINE FROM 27N98W TO 22N106W. NORTH OF 20N WEST OF THIS 
MOISTURE PLUME THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY AND CLOUD 
FREE. THE LOWER LEVELS IN THIS AREA ARE COVERED IN OVERCAST TO 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.

ELSEWHERE BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS. EXCEPT FOR SOME CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ SECTION 
THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 26N97W TO 00N123W IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N W OF 103W. THIS FEATURE 
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
ELSEWHERE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

GAP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEST SEVERAL DAYS IN THE 20 TO 25 
KNOT RANGE MOSTLY EAST OF 91W.

GAP NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION OF 20 KNOTS 
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH WEDNESDAY TO LESS 
THAN 20 KNOTS.

$$
LL