000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...03N78W TO 
04N92W TO 03N110W TO 05N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
TO AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR NEAR 28N127W TO A BASE NEAR
19N130W APPEARS TO BE AMPLIFYING WITH TIME AS A 120-130 KT JET
STREAK DIVES SE ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N145W TO
16N130W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WAS WRAPPING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WORKING ITS WAY ALONG THE EAST 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH WAS 
ADVECTING MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NE INTO MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHER PLAINS OF THE U.S. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
REACH ITS MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THEN 
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE BY 48 HOURS.
 
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB NEAR 40N140W TO 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A 0304 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT 
PASS SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT TRADE WINDS S 
OF THE RIDGE AXIS MAINLY W OF 125W. THE SAME PASS ALSO INDICATED 
NLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W 
IN ANTICIPATION OF THE HIGH PRESS BUILDING SWD INTO THE AREA. 
NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 9 FT WILL BUILD 8 TO 11 FT BY TUESDAY. 

FURTHER EAST...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE BAHAMAS IS 
ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CURRENTLY THERE IS 
A RESPITE IN FUNNELED FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HOWEVER
SOME OF THE STRONG FLOW CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST 
TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RESULTING IN AN 
INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GAP. LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS ARE 
ALSO FILTERING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL 
LIKELY ABATE WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE PERSISTENT PAPAGAYO FLOW IS 
GENERATING EASTERLY SWELL...THAT IS MIXING WITH NW SWELL FROM 
THE N CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY S OF 10N W OF 100W. TO COMPLICATE 
MATTERS...A THIRD COMPONENT OF SW SWELL WILL PUSH ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR INTO THE SAME AREA BY LATER TODAY.

$$
COBB