000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090358
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...03N78W
TO 05N90W TO 02N110W TO 04N125W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO 
AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR NEAR 22N130W APPEARS TO BE 
AMPLIFYING WITH TIME AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR 
ALOFT WRAPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE POSITION OF THE 
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS.
 
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB NEAR 41N140W TO 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A MUCH EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS 
SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF 20+ KT TRADES WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS 
MAINLY W OF 125W. BY LATE TUESDAY...THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA 
SHIFTS SOUTH...ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT 
N OF 25N...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT. 

FURTHER EAST...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE BAHAMAS IS 
ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SOME OF THIS 
FLOW IS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RESULTING IN 
PERSISTENT FRESH WINDS THROUGH THE GAP. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO 
FILTERING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY 
ABATE BY LATER TODAY. THE PERSISTENT PAPAGAYO FLOW IS GENERATING 
EASTERLY SWELL...THAT IS MIXING WITH NW SWELL FROM THE N CENTRAL 
ATLC MAINLY S OF 10N W OF 100W. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A THIRD 
COMPONENT OF SW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE SAME AREA BY MONDAY.

$$
COBB