000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO 
03N80W TO 05N90W TO 03N105W TO 04N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W TO 91W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO 
NEAR 22N130W WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AROUND THE TROUGH HAD BEEN SUPPORTING A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 130W FROM 15N TO 20N YESTERDAY. THE UPPER 
TROUGH IS LESS AMPLIFIED THAN BEFORE...AND A 1430 QUIKSCAT PASS 
SHOWS NO EVIDENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. INSTEAD A BROAD SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1035 MB NEAR 41N140W TO SOUTHERN BAJA. THE 
SCATTEROMETER SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 20 KT TRADES WINDS S OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS MAINLY W OF 125W. BY LATE TUESDAY...THE HIGH PRES N 
OF THE AREA SHIFTS SOUTH...ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY 
WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 25N...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT. 

FURTHER EAST...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE BAHAMAS IS 
ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SOME OF THIS 
FLOW IS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...RESULTING IN 
PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE GAP. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO 
FILTERING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY 
ABATE THROUGH MONDAY. THE PERSISTENT PAPAGAYO FLOW IS GENERATING 
EASTERLY SWELL...THAT IS MIXING WITH NW SWELL FROM THE N CENTRAL 
ATLC MAINLY S OF 10N W OF 100W. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A THIRD 
COMPONENT OF SW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE SAME AREA BY MONDAY.

$$
CHRISTENSEN