000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N85W TO 03.5N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W 
OF 136W.

OTHER CONVECTION...A LINE OF SHOWERS IS 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 14N120W TO 10.5N130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN 
AREA...CURRENTLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR 32N95W TO 15N115W TO 
10N140W. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST FOR...AT LEAST...THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS A PLUME OF MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED RAIN AND SHOWERS WITHIN ABOUT 350 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N140W TO 20N120W TO BEYOND 32N100W. 
THIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND 
ALSO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO NORTH OF 20N. A PORTION OF THIS 
MOISTURE COMES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE EAST 
OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA ALONG ABOUT 
157W.

ELSEWHERE BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS. EXCEPT FOR SOME CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ SECTION 
THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 32N87W TO 15N113W TO 10N130W 
TO 00N130W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N W OF 115W. THIS FEATURE 
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST 
PORTION OF THE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED FURTHER AND IS NOW CONSIDERED 
DIFFUSE ALTHOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN 
THE RIDGE THAT WILL PERSIST THE SATELLITE WINDS DO NOT SHOW A 
FEATURE IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT 
THE SURFACE.

GAP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEST SEVERAL DAYS IN THE 20 TO 25 
KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONALLY 30 KNOTS EAST OF 90W.

GAP NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION HAVE DIMINISHED 
TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

$$
LL