000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
03N107W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TO 30N125W TO ROUGHLY 25N135W. A 90-110 KT JET STREAK 
IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE TROUGH IN SATELLITE DERIVED WIND FIELDS.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR PORTION OF THE 
JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHINESS 
ALONG 130W FROM 12N TO 20N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N135W 
TO SOUTH OF BAJA NEAR 18N110W. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS 
FROM 0324 UTC INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE AREA OF TROUGHINESS NOTED ABOVE. 
A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0144 UTC INDICATED A 
SHRINKING AREA OF NW TO N WINDS OFF THE BAJA COAST...ON THE 
EASTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...THE SW TO W WINDS 
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE ADVECTING A PLUME OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD 
CLOUDINESS FROM 10N TO 20N WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AS NOTED 
ON AN EARLIER SHIP REPORT. THE POSITION AND CHARACTER OF THE 
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

E OF 110W...A 0008 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT WATERS TO THE WEST. 
WINDS PER THE PASS WEAKENED TO AROUND 20 KT. THESE GAP WINDS 
WERE THE RESULT OF STRONG TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. 
CONVERGENCE OF THE PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF 
04N IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. MODERATE TO 
FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND 
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL. FURTHER NORTH...GAP WIND FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DIMINISHED ALTOGETHER. 
 SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE MAINLY S OF 10N W OF 100W...MAINLY DUE TO 
A MIX OF NW SWELL WITH NE SWELL FROM THE PAPAGAYO WINDS.

    $$
COBB