000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO 
02N105W TO 04N120W TO 04N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN 
AREA...CURRENTLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR 32N105W TO 20N115W TO 
10N140W. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST FOR...AT LEAST...THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE OVERALL 
TROUGH AND IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME CONVECTION 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER MEXICO NORTH OF 20N ALONG 
105W. ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH IS A PLUME OF MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS WITHIN ABOUT 400 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N140W TO 
20N120W TO BEYOND 32N100W. THIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTING  
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND ALSO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 27N97W TO 20N106W. 
SOME EMBEDDED RAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA 
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG 105W. A PORTION OF 
THIS MOISTURE COMES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE 
EAST OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE AREA 
ALONG ABOUT 160W.

ELSEWHERE BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS. EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR CONVECTION SOUTH OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 32N94W TO 10N115W TO 
10N125W TO 00N125W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS. 

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 15N140W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO 
STRENGTHEN SOME IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK EMBEDDED 
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE RIDGE 
ALONG A LINE FROM 20N130W TO 13N134W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
DRIFT EAST AND CHANGE LITTLE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ELSEWHERE 
A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

GAP NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
REGION OF 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT THIS 
AFTERNOON.

GAP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AND WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEST SEVERAL DAYS IN THE 20 TO 25 
KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONALLY 30 KNOTS EAST OF 90W.

GAP NORTHERLY WINDS IN AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF 
PANAMA REGION OF 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 
20 KNOTS TONIGHT.

$$
LL