000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO 
04N95W TO 02N110W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS SLICES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW 
ARIZONA THROUGH 29N125W TO BEYOND 29N140W. SOUTH OF THE SHEAR 
AXIS A 90 TO 110 KT UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM WITH A BROAD AREA OF 
WESTERLY FLOW TO 10N WAS NOTED. BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS ADVECTING 
A LARGE PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 15N TO 27N E OF 135W 
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO 
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS OF THE U.S. A BROAD BUT FLAT UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA HAS ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 
30N95W TO 20N105W TO 10N120W TO 00N127W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 

AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE RIDGE ALONG 30132W TO 18N110W 
DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. 0350 UTC QUIKSCAT 
PASS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT SOUTH OF 
THE RIDGE AXIS AND WEST OF 125W EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 14N. 
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N128W TO 14N135W 
AND WAS DRIFTING WESTWARD. 

GAP WINDS...
20 KNOT NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION 
WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATER TODAY.

20 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
PERHAPS WEAKEN TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

20 KT NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN AND SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF PANAMA 
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREA THEN DIMINISH TO LESS 
THAN 20 KNOTS BY TONIGHT.

$$
COBB