000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO 
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 05N86W TO 04N91W. 

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN 
AREA...CURRENTLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR 32N105W TO 20N115W TO 
10N140W. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST FOR...AT LEAST...THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. S STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE OVERALL 
TROUGH AND IS NORTH OF 28N EAST OF 126W. LITTLE WEATHER IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERALL 
TROUGH IS A PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN ABOUT 500 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 17N140W TO 22N120W TO BEYOND 32N106W. THIS 
MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND ALSO 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 
27N100W TO 22N106W. SOME EMBEDDED RAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN THIS AREA. A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THIS MOISTURE COMES 
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE EAST OF A FULL 
LATITUDE TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA ALONG ABOUT 167W.

ELSEWHERE BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS. EXCEPT FOR THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ SECTION 
THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 30N95W TO 20N105W TO 10N120W 
TO 00N127W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 15N140W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO 
STRENGTHEN SOME IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE A BROAD 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

GAP NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
REGION OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY THIS EVENING 
THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT SATURDAY.

GAP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AND WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEST SEVERAL DAYS IN THE 20 TO 30 
KNOT RANGE.

GAP NORTHERLY WINDS IN AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF 
PANAMA REGION OF 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREA THEN 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

$$
LL