000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051016
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 04N97W TO 02N110W TO 04N136W TO 04N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 86W-95W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N129W TO 10N135W WITH 90 KT JET 
CORE SWINGING AROUND BASE ADVECTING PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
NE INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO.  RELATIVELY DRY 
W OF TROUGH AXIS.  DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED AT ANTICYCLONE OVER 
YUCATAN PENINSULA FORCED BY TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING 
ADVECTED MOISTURE TO ROUND RIDGE CREST INTO NW MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL TEXAS.  SOME OF DEBRIS MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ENTER NW 
GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 48 HRS...BUT 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES 
MIGHT CURTAIL PRECIPITATION.  OTHERWISE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY 
DRY E OF 115W UNDER RIDGE UMBRELLA.

ELSEWHERE AT LOW LEVELS...LOW PRES N OF AREA ENTERS SRN 
CALIFORNIA INCREASING NW FLOW ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST 
THROUGH SAT.  BROAD HIGH PRES 1033 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE 
EXTEND TO 20N110W MAINTAINING FRESH FLOW OF TRADE WINDS W OF 
130W THROUGH SAT.  TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOW 
PRES ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST PUSHING LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS 
INTO E PAC W OF 110W ALL THE WAY TO THE EQUATOR. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS FINALLY DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT 
WITHIN 48 HRS AS RESPONSIBLE HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO EXITS 
INTO SW N ATLC.  UNUSUAL COLD FRONT ACROSS CARIBBEAN REACHES TO 
COAST OF VENEZUELA WITH STRONG NE TRADES SEEPING ACROSS GULFS OF 
FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE IN FORECAST 
PERIOD AS FRONT WEAKENS FRI.  SWATH OF NE SWELL PROPAGATING W  
FROM GAPS IN FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY SAT.   

$$
WALLY BARNES