000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG AXIS 06N77W TO 02N96W TO 03N130W TO 02N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 90W 
TO 93W.

...DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WASHINGTON STATE TO 
21N130W. THIS FEATURE PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN 
ROCKIES...BECOMING ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 
25N140W BY LATE FRI. THE WEAKENING SUPPORT ALOFT IS ALLOWING A 
SURFACE CURRENTLY FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 27N130W TO 
DISSIPATE. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ALONG ROUGHLY 25N TOWARD 
THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. A 13Z ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH A SHIP 
OBSERVATION SHOW 20 KT NORTHERN WINDS BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE 
AND THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE 
WEEKEND. 

MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 
ROUGHLY 100W WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN...BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED DEEP INTO CARIBBEAN 
BASIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS HAS MAINTAINED SPORADIC 
GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS 
FONSECA...PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. WINDS OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA 
WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THROUGH FRI AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRES 
WEAKENS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. DRAINAGE FLOW IS ENHANCING THE 
GAP WINDS IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...WITH AN EARLY 
MORNING MAXIMUM NOTED ON AVAILABLE SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS. NORTHERLY FLOW TO 20 KT PERSISTS THROUGH PANAMA 
INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY W 
OF 115W. THIS IS MIXING WITH EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM THE 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW OFF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...BUT THIS 
IS TAPERING OFF.

$$
CHRISTENSEN