000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041027
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 02N98W TO 04N128W TO 02N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 86W-94W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTEND SW FROM 32N129W TO 
19N140W WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS W OF AXIS.  SWATH OF MOISTURE 
RIDES SW JET CORE OF 120 KT INTO NRN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
NW MEXICO.  SURFACE LOW PRES 1000 MB WELL N OF AREA WITH 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH SRN CALIFORNIA READY TO CONVERT 
AVAILABLE MOISTURE INTO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND HEAVY 
PRECIPITATION.  LARGE SURFACE RIDGE NW OF BASIN FORCING LARGE 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ACROSS E PAC W OF 110W AND STRONG NE TRADE 
WINDS COMBINE TO MAINTAIN SEA HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT ALMOST ENTIRE 
BASIN.  WEAKENING RIDGE FORCED E BY FRONT FORCING STRONG NW 
WINDS ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH EXTEND 
ALONG 103W MAINTAINS DRY AIR MASS SE OF MOISTURE SWATH DUE TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  DRYNESS EXTEND E THROUGH 
REMAINDER OF E PAC...EXCEPT MINOR LINE ALONG ITCZ OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION 90 NM WIDE ALONG 05N FROM 86W-94W.

WITH COLD FRONT OUT OF GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO WRN CARIBBEAN... 
THE STRONG N-NE WINDS OVER AND DOWN WIND OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BELOW 20 KT 
WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS.  STRONG NE WINDS IN GULFS OF FONSECA... 
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH MINOR 
CHANGES ONLY.  

$$
WALLY BARNES