000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031521
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 03N77W TO 01N100W TO 03N125W TO 02N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MID/UPPER 
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG ROUGHLY 105W N OF 15N...MOVING EAST AHEAD 
OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 45N125W 
TO 22N140W. AT THE SURFACE...SCATTEROMETER DATA JIVES WITH THE 
BROAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO 
INDICATE THE POSITION OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT...RELATED TO THE 
UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 24N140W...TO THE 
WEST OF WEAK 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 27N126W. THE UPPER 
LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND FILLS THROUGH MIDDAY WED...AHEAD OF A 
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE TRAILING UPPER 
TROUGH BECOMES ORIENTED MORE E-W ALONG 35N...DEPRIVING THE FRONT 
OF UPPER SUPPORT AND ALLOWING IT TO STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 
WED. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG ROUGHLY 30N WED INTO 
THU AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. MEANWHILE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HEIGHTS TO 17FT 
IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

E OF 110W...WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY AS HIGH PRES N OF THE 
AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
ARE ENHANCING FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS FLOW IS 
ENHANCED FURTHER BY EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW...GIVING AN 12Z 
DIURNAL MAXIMUM OF UP TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND TO 
A LESSER EXTENT IN THE GULF OF FONSECA. THE COMBINED EASTERLY 
COMPONENTS OF THE GAP WINDS ARE GENERATING A BROAD SWATH OF 
EASTERLY SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE TO AROUND 115W AND MIX WITH 
ONGOING NW SWELL. FURTHER SOUTH...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE 
PUSHING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA...MAINTAINING 20 TO 25 
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN