000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
02N100W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE 
AREA FROM 01N TO 03N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
AND IS CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N121W TO 10N140W. 
THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND EXPAND 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THIS AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 
KNOTS NORTH OF 28N RETREATING TO NORTH OF 30N TUESDAY THEN 
DIMINISHING SOME WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE AREA 
COUPLED WITH STRONG TROUGH ALONG 130W MOSTLY NORTH OF 30N IS 
PRODUCING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NW OF THE AREA WHICH ARE 
PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE 
NORTHWEST ONE QUARTER OF THE AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE 
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A PLUME OF DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 
250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N140W TO 25N125W TO BEYOND 
32N119W. INCLUDED WITHIN THIS AREA IS A BAND OF MULTI LEVEL 
OVERCAST CLOUDS ABOUT 400 NM ACROSS.

THE AREA EAST OF 130W SOUTHEAST OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH 
IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 32N128W TO 20N135W. THIS IS A FEATURE 
THAT WILL WEAKEN AS OTHER SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE 
DEEP LAYER CIRCULATION. OTHERWISE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS NORTH 
OF 15N. S OF 15N BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED. 

GAP STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO GALE FORCE AND WILL FALL TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE 
TUESDAY.

GAP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF FONSECA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY 
20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE AREA WILL DIMINISH SOME WEDNESDAY.

GAP NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
LL