000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 04N80W TO 05N85W TO 02N100W TO 02N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 115W...AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES. DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
EXTENDS ALONG 135W N OF 30N...THEN SW TOWARD HAWAII. A STRONG 
NORTHERLY JET DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING 
DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N133W TO 30N140W...AS NOTED 
BY DISTINCT STRATO-CUMULUS FIELDS. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH 
CUTS OFF THROUGH TUE...AND LIFTS OUT TO THE PACIFIC NW 
STATES...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL AND WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS 
EAST. FURTHER EAST...BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 110W...AND 
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH 48 
HOURS. AN ASSOCIATED 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 27N123W 
LIFTS NE ACCORDINGLY...ALTHOUGH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRES FROM N OF 
HAWAII EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 27N THROUGH TUE...BEHIND THE 
WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ALLOWS NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE N 
BAJA COAST TO INCREASE TUE INTO WED. AN AREA OF TRADE WINDS IS 
NOTED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM 06Z...SOUTH OF THE THIS SURFACE 
RIDGE....MAINLY S OF 20N AND W OF 135W. THIS AREA WILL SPREAD 
EAST AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH EXTENDS EAST THROUGH TUE. 
MEANWHILE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL UP TO 15 FT CONTINUES TO 
PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC.

E OF 115W...MAIN WEATHER MAKER IS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT 
PUSHED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING STORM FORCE GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS DIMINISHES TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY...THEN 
BELOW GALE TUE. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT...TRADES 
INCREASE THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...ALLOWING INCREASED FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO AS WELL. THE 
CONVERGING FLOW THROUGH THE GAPS IS PUSHING WESTWARD...WITH 
SUBSEQUENT EASTERLY SWELL TO CONVERGE WITH NW SWELL W OF 105W. 
FURTHER S...CARIBBEAN TRADES ALSO PUSHING THROUGH GULF OF 
PANAMA...BRINGING NORTHERLY 20 FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA 
THROUGH WED.

$$
CHRISTENSEN