000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
02N100W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE 
AREA FROM 03N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
AND IS CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N125W TO 10N140W. 
THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND EXPAND 
A EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO 
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THIS AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS 
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS MOSTLY NORTH OF 25N. STRONG SURFACE HIGH WELL 
WEST OF THE AREA COUPLED WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF 
THE AREA NEAR 44N136W IS PRODUCING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NW 
OF THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL 
WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA 
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. A PLUME OF 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND 
IS ABOUT 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N140W TO 25N128W TO 
BEYOND 32N125W. INCLUDED WITHIN THIS AREA IS A BAND OF MULTI 
LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS ABOUT 200 NM ACROSS WITH SOME EMBEDDED 
CONVECTION AND AREAS OF RAIN.

THE AREA EAST OF 130W SOUTHEAST OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION 
WITHIN THE ITCZ MENTIONED ABOVE.

A COLD FRONT WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ALONG THE LINE THROUGH 32N129W TO 20N135W TO 16N140W. THIS IS A 
FEATURE THAT WILL WEAKEN AS OTHER SURFACE TROUGH ROTATE THROUGH 
THE DEEP LAYER CIRCULATION. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N 
WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED. 

GAP STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE EARLY 
MONDAY THEN FALL TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE TUESDAY.

GAP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH 20 TO 
25 KNOTS INCREASING SOME DURING MONDAY.

GAP NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA OF NEAR 20 KNOTS 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GAP NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N 
OF 25N WILL DIMINISH DURING TONIGHT.

$$
LL