000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011027
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 02N120W TO 03N135W TO 03N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 86W-89W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX NOW HEADING ALMOST DUE N COMPLETELY 
BLOCKED FROM EASTWARD ENCROACHMENT BY WELL ANCHORED RIDGE ALONG 
113W.  VERY STRONG 124 KT SOUTHERLY JET CORE BRINGS ABUNDANT 
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CALIFORNIA.  RIDGE MAINTAINS REST OF E 
PAC E OF 120W VERY DRY UNDER UMBRELLA OF MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.  LONG WAVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER GULF OF MEXICO 
FLATTENS RIDGE CREST AND MAINTAINS ALMOST ZONAL FLOW OVER REST 
OF BASIN.  

AT THE SURFACE...
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N128W TO 16N140W CEASED TO PUSH SURFACE 
1020 MB HIGH PRES AND RIDGE AGAINST BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST SO 
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH WITHIN 24 HRS.  STILL...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PROPAGATE 
S INTO AREA IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT NW WINDS OVER CENTRAL PAC 
W OF FRONT.  

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH GULF OF MEXICO PUSH INTO TEHUANTEPEC 
BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY AND INCREASING TO STORM FORCE 
WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO GALE MON.  PERSISTENT 
TRADES IN CARIBBEAN ALLOW GAP WINDS THROUGH GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
AND PANAMA TO PERSIST THROUGH MON...POSSIBLY EXTENDING NORTHWARD 
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT ENTERS WRN 
CARIBBEAN INCREASING NE TRADES. 

$$
WALLY BARNES