000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
04N98W TO 01N108W TO  05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH 
DIGS NE OF HAWAII ALONG 140W...WITH A BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE 
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N128W TO 16N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT ALONG THE 
FRONT...THE RESULT OF A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 31N121W OFF THE N COAST OF BAJA. 
AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1930Z SHOWED EVIDENCE OF A TROUGH OR NEWLY 
FORMING COLD FRONT ALONG ROUGHLY 30N136W TO 24N140W. THIS 
FEATURE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION 
THROUGH SUN. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO 
THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT NW WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC W OF THE TROUGH. THE FRONT WEAKENS THROUGH SUN AS THE 
UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS N OF THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER ALSO SHOWS 20 
KT NW WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE RESULT OF HIGH 
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY 
TONIGHT...THE DIMINISH THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH INTO TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...BRINGING 
STORM FORCE WINDS BY LATE SUN DIMINISHING TO GALES BY MON. 
PERSISTENT TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW GAP WINDS THROUGH 
THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA TO PERSIST THROUGH MON. 
MEANWHILE TRADES S OF 15N W OF 110W ARE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED DUE 
TO WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN