000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...03N77W 
TO 02N100W TO 04N140W.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ 
WITHIN 40 NM OF THE POINT 09N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
AND IS CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N128W TO THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 135W. THE DOMINANT PART OF THIS FEATURE IS NORTH OF 
20N. THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND 
EXPAND A LITTLE EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THIS AREA WITH 
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EAST OF THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 
125W NORTH OF ABOUT 25N. STRONG HIGH WEST OF THE TROUGH WITH 
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS 
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA BUT INCREASING 
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. 
A PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N140W TO 
30N128W TO BEYOND 32N128W. INCLUDED WITHIN THIS AREA IS A LARGE 
AREA OF MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED 
CONVECTION AND AREAS OF RAIN MOST OF THIS WEATHER IS NORTH OF 
30N AND MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE AREA SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 120W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 

COLD FRONT IS ALONG A LINE THROUGH 32N130W TO 20N135W TO 
17N140W. THIS IS THE FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS OTHER SURFACE TROUGH 
ROTATE THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER CIRCULATION. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE 
IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED. 

GAP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COUPLE OF DAY WITH 20 TO 25 
KNOTS THEN INCREASING SOME OF MONDAY.

WEAK GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA OF NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL 
DIMINISH TONIGHT THEN RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

GAP NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THEN 
DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT AFTER 0600 UTC A GAP WIND EVENT WILL SUDDENLY BEGIN IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA REACHING QUICKLY TO GALE FORCE 
EARLY SUNDAY AND STORM FORCE SUNDAY EVENING.   

$$
LL