000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281003 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT FEB 28 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 02N100W TO 04N132W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 132W-135W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 32N139W PICKED UP BY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE AS LONG WAVE DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS N OF AREA ALONG 140W. COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRES 1004 MB 31N138W DRAG HEALTHY COLD FRONT INTO E PAC FORECAST WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT DISSIPATES WITHIN 48 HRS AS LOW PRES SHIFT N FOLLOWING ITS UPPER SUPPORT. VERY STRONG HIGH PRES WELL NW OF AREA BRINGS STRONG COLD NORTHERLIES AROUND W SIDE OF COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRES PUSHING LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS INTO WRN LONGITUDES OF E PAC ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE EQUATOR. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 18N111W HOLDS FAST UN TO ITS POSITION BARRING FURTHER E DISPLACEMENT OF CYCLONIC VORTEX AND KEEPING E PAC E OF 122W VERY DRY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE UMBRELLA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ROUNDING CREST OF RIDGE INTO SW CONUS BRINGING PLENTY OF ENERGY INTO STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT EMERGING ON PACIFIC SIDE OF ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30N HRS. SURFACE HIGH PRES UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS E OVER CALIFORNIA BRINGING FRESH NW BREEZE ALONG W COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA FOLLOWED WITHIN 24 HRS FOR SIMILAR WINDS ON GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BOTH RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED EVENTS. EASTWARD MOVE OF HIGH PRES DIMINISHES NE TRADES W OF 125W. PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO REMAIN UNABATED THROUGH WEEKEND WHILE GULF OF PANAMA N WIND PULSATE OFF AND ON AS LOW PRES 1005 MB OVER COLOMBIA MOVES CLOSER TO IT. $$ WALLY BARNES