000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 03N77W 
TO 04N105W TO 06N115W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 131W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
AND IS CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N125W TO 15N140W. THIS 
FEATURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND EXPAND A 
LITTLE EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THIS AREA WITH SOUTHERLY 
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EAST OF THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 125W NORTH 
OF ABOUT 24N. STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD WEST OF THE TROUGH WITH 
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST 
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA BUT INCREASING 
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. A 
LARGE PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH AND IS NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 125W. INCLUDED WITHIN 
THIS AREA IS A LARGE AREA OF MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH 
SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION AND AREAS OF RAIN NORTHWEST OF A LINE 
FROM 32N127W TO 21N140W.

THE AREA SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 125W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 

TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE THROUGH 32N137W TO 22N140W. THIS IS 
THE FEATURE THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE FRONTAL TROUGH MENTIONED 
ABOVE. WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 112W. ELSEWHERE BROAD 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED. 

GAP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS 
DIMINISHING TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA OF NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL 
DIMINISH SATURDAY.

GAP NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO 
20 TO 25 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER 0600 UTC A GAP WIND EVENT WILL SUDDENLY 
BEGIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA REACHING QUICKLY TO GALE 
FORCE EARLY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INCREASE TO A STORM EVENT DURING 
SUNDAY.    

$$
LL