000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...04N77W TO 03N90W TO 06N130W 05N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS W OF 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 32N145W BRING STRONG 
SW JET CORE 125 KT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO 
NW CORNER OF FORECAST WATERS.  VORTEX AND ATTENDANT TROUGH STILL 
W OF E PAC PROVIDE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT TO SURFACE TROUGH WITH 
CYCLOGENESIS BRINGING SURFACE LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT INTO NW 
CORNER OF E PAC WITHIN 12-18 HRS.  STRONG NORTHERLIES W OF LOW 
PRES WILL BRING LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS INTO E PAC SPREADING SE 
AND REACHING AS FAR S AS EQUATOR W OF 105W WITHIN 48 HRS.  COLD 
FRONT MOVES E WITH STRONG W WINDS BEHIND IT BY 48 HRS.   

VORTEX MOVES SE QUICKLY DISPLACING BROAD RIDGE CENTERED AT 
09N123W AND EXTENDING NE TO SW ARIZONA.  ENTIRE E PAC E OF RIDGE 
AXIS REMAINS VERY DRY DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDING AIR 
MASS.  ASSOCIATED WELL ANCHORED SURFACE 1025 MB HIGH PRES AT 
32N125W WILL BE FORCED TO YIELD TO COLD FRONT AND SQUEEZE E INTO 
WRN CONUS FUNNELING STRONG NW WINDS INTO NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
WITHIN 18-24 HRS SPREADING S BY 48 HRS.  

FURTHER S...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
PERSIST AS CARIBBEAN COLD FRONT MAINTAINS STRONG NE WIND 
DRAINING ACROSS COSTA RICA MOUNTAIN GAPS.  LOW PRES 1010 MB OVER 
COLOMBIA MAINTAIN PERSISTENT STRONG N WIND ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA 
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS ATLC COLD FRONT WEAKENS PRES 
GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 12-18 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES