000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
03N85W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM 
OF THE POINT 06N137W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
AND IS CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N125W TO 15N140W. THIS 
FEATURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND EXPAND A 
LITTLE EASTWARD. SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS OVER THIS AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE 
TROUGH TO ABOUT 120W NORTH OF ABOUT 25N. STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD 
WEST OF THE TROUGH AFTER 24 HOURS WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY 
WINDS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN 
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA BUT INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY 
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. A LARGE PLUME OF 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND 
IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR 25N105W TO 20N130W TO 15N135W TO 
15N140W. INCLUDED WITHIN THIS AREA IS A LARGE AREA OF MULTI 
LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED RAIN NORTHWEST OF A 
LINE 32N120W TO 20N140W.

EXCEPT FOR SOME ITCZ CONVECTION THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE LARGE 
PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS DRY 
REGION IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA WHERE 
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS ITCZ CONVECTION IS FLOWING 
NORTHEAST. 

WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG 140W NORTH OF 20N. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT 
WILL DEVELOP INTO THE FRONTAL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. MODERATE 
RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED. 

GAP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH 20 TO 
30 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 24 HOURS.

WEAK GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA OF NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL 
DIMINISH IN FRIDAY.

WEAK GAP WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN 
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE BEYOND SATURDAY.

$$
LL