000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 04N77W TO 03N90W TO 
05N120W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 115W AND 
COVERING THE PACIFIC E OF 130W...BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO IS 
FLATTENING OUT AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW PUSHES ASHORE INTO 
WASHINGTON STATE. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE 
UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON IS BECOMING PINCHED OFF AND CUTTING 
OFF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF HAWAII NEAR 33N145W. 
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW AND RIDGE IS 
ADVECTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NE 
FROM ALONG 140W TOWARD CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED BY LATE THU AS UPPER 
ENERGY REINFORCES THE TROUGH AND OPENS UP THE THE CUTOFF LOW NE 
OF HAWAII...SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NW DISCUSSION AREA 
BY FRI. IN THE MEANTIME A LARGE SWATH OF LONG PERIOD...16 SECOND
NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE FRI.

AT THE SURFACE...1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 32N123W. A
HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0244 UTC INDICATED NW TO N 
WINDS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE BAJA 
COAST. THE HIGH PRES IS BLOCKING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 
30N135W TO 25N140W. WINDS OFF THE BAJA COAST ARE FORECAST TO 
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE 
REINFORCED TROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS ALSO ALLOWS INCREASING 
NORTHERLY FLOW TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF 
CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING INTO FRI. PERSISTENT TRADES TO 25 KT 
CONTINUE S OF THE SURFACE HIGH...MAINLY S OF 15N. GAP WINDS ARE 
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND MORE 
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS 
THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

$$
COBB