000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 05N77W TO 05N90W TO 
02N98W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 115W....A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 
20N120W...SUPPORTING A STATIONARY 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES 
CENTER NEAR 20N125W. THE COUPLED RIDGE IS BLOCKING A SERIES OF 
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIGGING TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER 
RIDGE...AS WELL AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NE OF HAWAII. A SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED 
A BAND OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH PRES 
AND THE BAJA COAST. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED A SWATH OF 20 
TO 25 KT TRADES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRES...MAINLY S 
OF 15N W OF 105W. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OFF 
THE U.S. WEST COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF HAWAII IS 
ALLOWING GROUPS OF NORTHERLY SWELL TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA N 
OF 15N W OF 125W. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE 
AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A A PAIR OF DEEP UPPER 
CYCLONES CUTOFF TO THE NE OF HAWAII...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE 
LOW AND COLD FRONT FORMING NE OF HAWAII NEAR 25N140W BY FRI.

E OF 115W...AS HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS AND 
SHIFTS EAST...IT IS LIKELY THAT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW GALE FORCE THIS 
EVENING...AND WILL CONINTUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE 
NIGHT. RESIDUAL NE SWELL PERSISTS MAINLY S OF 15N FOR THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. PERIODS OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP FLOW PERSIST IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 48 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED 
TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN AND LOCALIZED DRAINAGE EFFECTS. 
LIKEWISE NORTHERLY FLOW UP TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PANAMA THEN DIMINISH AFTER 24 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN