000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 07N78W TO 04N80W TO 
04N90W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 115W....A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 
20N120W...SUPPORTING A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 
20N125W. THE COUPLED RIDGE IS BLOCKING A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT 
WAVE TROUGHS DIGGING TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AS WELL AS 
A WEAK DISSIPATING SURFACE FRONT NE OF HAWAII. AN ASCAT PASS 
FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED A BAND OF NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE 
SURFACE HIGH PRES AND THE BAJA COAST. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO 
SHOWED A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE 
HIGH PRES...MAINLY S OF 15N W OF 105W. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW 
BETWEEN A TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRES N 
OF HAWAII IS ALLOWING GROUPS OF NORTHERLY SWELL TO PROPAGATE 
INTO THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES A 
LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A A PAIR OF 
DEEP UPPER CYCLONES CUTOFF TO THE NE OF HAWAII...WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FORMING NE OF HAWAII NEAR 
25N140W BY FRI.

E OF 115W...GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
SHIFTS EAST. RESIDUAL NE SWELL PERSISTS MAINLY S OF 15N FOR THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PERIODS OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP FLOW 
PERSISTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 48 HOURS ASSOCIATED 
WITH FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN AND LOCALIZED 
DRAINAGE EFFECTS. LIKEWISE NORTHERLY FLOW UP TO 20 KT WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA THEN DIMINISH AFTER 24 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN