000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
06N105W TO 06N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 05N85.5W AND THE POINT 09N135W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA. 
THIS FEATURE IS PART OF A LARGE COMPLEX TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 
NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN EAST OF 150W. WEATHER 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH SOME 
EMBEDDED RAIN EXTENDING ABOUT 800 NM SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 
32N120W TO 21N140W. THIS MOISTURE IS DUE TO DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW 
TO THE EAST OF THE LARGE COMPLEX TROUGH. THE LARGE TROUGH WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SHORTWAVES 
OR SMALL CUTOFF LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION 
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD 
DIMINISH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CONVECTION THAT HAS SUPPLIED 
SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES CONVECTION DEVELOPING AGAIN WEST OF 155W WHICH COULD 
RESUPPLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER MOISTURE.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY A BROAD 
RIDGE. THE AREA SOUTH OF A LINE SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO TO 15N125W TO 
00N130W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
EXCEPT FOR SOME ITCZ CONVECTION EAST OF 97W.

WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE 
AREA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH 
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE A WEAK 
RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N W OF 105W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS 
ANALYZED AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE ITCZ.

GAP NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS IN AND SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL DIMINISH TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUESDAY AND 
20 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

GAP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN AND WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO 20 
TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

$$
LL