000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
POINT 07N128W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA. 
THIS FEATURE IS PART OF A LARGE COMPLEX TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 
NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN EAST OF 150W. SEVERAL 
CUTOFF LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGH AND ONE IS 
LOCATED NEAR 31N136W AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KT. WEATHER 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS IN THE FORM OF A PLUME OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH SOME 
EMBEDDED RAIN WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N135W 
TO BEYOND 32N125W. THIS MOISTURE EMANATES FROM DIFFLUENT UPPER 
FLOW TO THE EAST OF A DEEP TROPICS TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED 
WEST OF THE AREA. THE DEEP TROPICS TROUGH IS BEING ABSORBED BY 
THE LARGE COMPLEX TROUGH. THE LARGE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SHORTWAVES OR SMALL CUTOFF 
LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 
PART OF THE AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY A BROAD 
RIDGE. SOME WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 90W TO 95W IS 
INTRODUCING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN CLOUDS 
IN THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER 
WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. OTHERWISE 
THE AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR THE BIG BEND OF THE RIO 
GRANDE TO 00N125W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO NORTH OF 20N AND SOUTH OF THE 
MOISTURE PLUME MENTIONED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH. THIS MOISTURE 
IS ALSO EMANATING FROM DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 
THE LARGE TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA.

SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH 
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE A VERY 
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N W OF 105W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS 
ANALYZED AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE ITCZ.

GAP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN AND WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

GAP NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION 
WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE TONIGHT THAN DIMINISH TO GALE 
DURING MONDAY AND FALL TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUESDAY.

$$
LL