000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
01N100W TO 07N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120-180 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

QUASI-STATIONARY MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED 
JUST TO THE NW OF DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N134W TO A BASE
NEAR 27N145W. A VIGOROUS VORTMAX SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF 
THE TROUGH NEAR 31N143W IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN LIFT 
NE OVER THE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE DESCRIBED BELOW. THIS VORTMAX 
WAS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT TO THE NW OF 
THE AREA FROM 35N141W TO 30N146W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE 
WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ENTERING THE FAR 
NW CORNER OF THE AREA. 

A BROAD AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA WEST OF 110W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CALIFORNIA
ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH 26N117W TO 17N120W TO THE EQUATOR AT 
133W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE SPEEDS OF 110-130 KT 
EXTENDED FROM 24N150W THROUGH 27N140W TO 32N134W AND CAPPED A 
LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH COVERED 
THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W EXTENDING WELL N OF THE 
AREA INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. 

A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE
WITH AXIS FROM NE MEXICO SWD ALONG 100W TO A BASE WELL INTO THE 
DEEP TROPICS NEAR 07N104W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS 
NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH.   

GAP WINDS...
A PARTIAL 2330 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED NE TO 
E GAP WINDS OF 20 KNOTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS SHOULD 
CONTINUE INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE 
THROUGH MONDAY. 

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER TEXAS IS FORECAST TO BUILD 
SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN 
AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE THIS 
EVENING AND STORM FORCE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT GALE FORCE 
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  

$$
COBB