000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 21 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM  
02N79W T0 02N110W TO 06N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA. S 
STRONG COMPLEX CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE WESTERN PART 
OF THE AREA NEAR 38N140W. ASSOCIATED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF 
MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS NORTH OF 30N 
BETWEEN 132W AND 137W. THE CUTOFF LOW AND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE TROUGH WEAKENING DURING 
SUNDAY BUT REMAINING OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY A BROAD 
RIDGE. THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR 20N95W TO 15N120W 
TO 10N125W TO 02N125W TO 05N140W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 
SOME MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IS ABOUT 500 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 15N140W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 
THIS MOISTURE IS EMANATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION LOCATED WEST OF 
ABOUT 130W TO A VERY DEEP TROPICS TROUGH NEAR 156W.  ANOTHER 
AREA OF MOISTURE AND MULTI LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS IS 
MOVING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO BETWEEN 20N AND 26N. THIS MOISTURE 
ALSO ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ CONVECTION. 

SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND 
CUTOFF. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N W OF 105W. 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH 
CENTERED NEAR THE ITCZ.

GAP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN AND WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN  
DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY. GAP NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 20 KT.
GAP NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION OF 20 TO 
25 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT 20 TO 30 KNOTS THEN DIMINISH 
SATURDAY AND INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY.

$$
LL