000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 05N77W 
TO 03N105W T0 04N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE POINT 08N136W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 19N140W. A STRONG COMPLEX CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED 
NORTH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 38N140W. ASSOCIATED 
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED 
SHOWERS IS NORTH OF 30N WEST OF 135W. THE CUTOFF LOW AND TROUGH 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE TROUGH 
WEAKENING DURING SUNDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY A BROAD 
RIDGE. THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR 20N95W TO 15N120W 
TO 10N125W TO 02N125W TO 05N140W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 
SOME MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IS ABOUT 500 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 15N140W TO CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE 
IS EMANATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION LOCATED WEST OF ABOUT 130W TO 
A VERY DEEP TROPICS TROUGH NEAR 158W.  ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE 
AND MULTI LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS IS MOVING OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO BETWEEN 20N AND 26N. THIS MOISTURE ALSO ORIGINATED FROM 
ITCZ CONVECTION. 

SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND 
CUTOFF. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N W OF 110W. 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH 
CENTERED NEAR THE ITCZ.

GAP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN AND WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN  
DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY. GAP NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 20 KT.
GAP NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION OF 20 TO 
25 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT 20 TO 30 KNOTS THEN DIMINISH 
SATURDAY AND INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY.

$$
LL