000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192118
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE FROM  
02N78W TO 02N105W TO 06N115W TO 06N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM 25N110W TO 20N140W.
A STRONG COMPLEX CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE WESTERN 
PART OF THE AREA NEAR 38N137W. ASSOCIATED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF 
MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS WELL NORTH OF THE 
AREA. THE CUTOFF LOW AND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN 
WEAKENING SOME FROM 48 HOURS TO 72 HOURS.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY A BROAD 
RIDGE. THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR 25N97W TO 20N108W 
TO 05N120W TO 05N140W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IS ABOUT 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 15N140W TO BEYOND 27N100W. THIS MOISTURE IS EMANATING FROM 
ITCZ CONVECTION LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 145W AND 155W.

SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND 
CUTOFF. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N W OF 110W. 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH 
CENTERED NEAR THE EQUATOR.

GAP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN AND WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
OF 20 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN INCREASE 
FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT TO 20 TO 30 KT BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME 
SATURDAY. GAP NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY TO 20 KNOTS THEN TO LESS THAN 20 
KT FRIDAY NIGHT. GAP NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
REGION OF 20 KNOTS WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND INCREASE RAPIDLY TO 20 
TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY.

$$
LL