000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO 
00.5N105W TO 05N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 06N126W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM 25N110W TO 20N140W. A 
STRONG CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR 
36N141W. ASSOCIATED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS 
AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE CUTOFF LOW 
AND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 
TROUGH STRENGTHENING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY A BROAD 
RIDGE. THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR 26N97W TO 20N113W 
TO 05N123W TO 05N140W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IS ABOUT 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 15N131W TO 25N113W TO BEYOND 27N100W.

SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND 
CUTOFF. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N W OF 110W. 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH 
CENTERED NEAR THE EQUATOR.

GAP NORTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF PANAMA OF 20 KNOTS WILL 
DIMINISH IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  GAP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN AND 
WEST OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  GAP NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 KT 
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN 
ABOUT 18 HOURS THEN WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AFTER 42 HOURS. 
GAP NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION OF 20 
KNOTS WILL BEGIN IN ABOUT 30 HOURS AND INCREASE RAPIDLY TO 20 TO 
30 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
LL