000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 05N90W TO 01N105W TO 03N130W TO 03N140W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 90W-93W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTEND FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX 
AT 40N128W TO 32N128W TO 15N140W.  JET STREAM 100 KT WRAPS 
AROUND SE PART OF TROUGH ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ACROSS BASIN INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA.  VERY DRY 
AIR MASS WITHIN 5 DEG NW OF TROUGH AXIS DUE TO MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SE OF TROUGH AT 10N97W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING N TO WRN TEXAS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR 
COVERS AREA FROM 5N-25N E OF 115N.  

AT THE SURFACE...
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N119W T0 24N131W DENTS 
HIGH PRES 1020 MB RIDGE CENTERED AT 22N117W.  RIDGE HOLDS 
POSITION WHILE COLD FRONT MOVES NE OUT OF AREA.  

SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHES AREA LATE MON WITH STRONG SW WINDS 
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO GALE FORCE N OF 26N W OF 132W THROUGH EARLY 
TUE.  GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS POINT TO INCREASING SW WIND 25-30 KT.
WELL ANCHORED RIDGE MAKES SHORT SHIFT E...BUT THEN HOLDS AND 
DEFLECTS THIS COLD FRONT NE OF AREA DIMINISHING WINDS BEFORE 
THEY REACH E OF 120W.  NEW RIDGE PSN INCREASES POSSIBILITY OF 
STRONG NW WINDS OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.  

GAP WINDS...
HEALTHY ATLC HIGH PRES BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT IN GULF OF 
MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN FORCE TRADES ACROSS MOUNTAIN PASSES IN 
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA.  EVENTS ARE SHORT- 
LIVED AND NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE AS ATLC HIGH PRES 
MOVES QUICKLY E.

$$
WALLY BARNES