000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 06N77W 
TO 01N100W TO 00N110W TO 02N120W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
THE SOUTHERN PART OF A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE W 
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN 116W 
AND 135W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY NE AND THE AXIS IS LOCATED 
FROM 32N130W TO 24N128W. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED 
THROUGH 32N124W TO 25N135W...WINDS ARE AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS 12 TO 18 FEET W OF THE FRONT. 
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE LOCATED E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A STRONG WELL-DEFINED UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS LOCATED THROUGH 18N140W TO 23N125W 
INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS ALONG 
THE JET AXIS INDICATE THE HIGHEST SPEEDS ARE IN THE 100 TO 120 
KNOT RANGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LOCATED UP TO 12 DEGREES SE 
OF THE JET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE S OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 18N120W 
TO 03N140W. AT THE SURFACE A 1019 MB HIGH IS POSITIONED NEAR 
25N118W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND 
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY.

E OF 110W...
THE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED ABOVE CONTINUES OVER THE 
EASTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE STRONGEST AREA 
ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST ABOUT 480 NAUTICAL 
MILES. AT THE SURFACE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS 
OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION IN 48 
HOURS. 

$$
CAB