000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152144
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 06N77W 
TO 05N90W TO 03N100W TO 03N120W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
THE SOUTHERN PART OF A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE W 
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W 
AND 135W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY E AND THE AXIS IS LOCATED 
ALONG 128W. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 
32N125W TO 27N135W...WINDS ARE AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS EITHER SIDE 
OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS 10 TO 16 FEET. LAYERED CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED E OF 
THE FRONT N OF 28N. A STRONG WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS LOCATED THROUGH 19N140W TO 22N130W INTO 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS ALONG THE 
JET AXIS ARE IN THE 80 TO 90 KNOT RANGE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 
ARE LOCATED UP TO 12 DEGREES SE OF THE JET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF A LINE FROM 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 18N120W TO 03N140W. AT THE SURFACE A 
1021 MB HIGH IS POSITIONED NEAR 25N119W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY.

E OF 110W...
THE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED ABOVE CONTINUES OVER THE 
EASTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OFF 
THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST. AT THE SURFACE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE 
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION IN 48 HOURS. 

$$
CAB